Presently, it is being said that the Holbrooke visit to this region as well as the Gates visit from India to Pakistan is to pressure Pakistan into accepting a more direct Indian role in Afghanistan – to be suggested in London.
There are a series of events unfolding, seemingly delinked from each other, but in reality connecting to form a larger picture which bodes ill for Pakistan. First, there is the Pakistan-Iran relationship which is being undermined by US pressure. For instance, when Iran has already built the gas pipeline up to the border with Pakistan, why are the Pakistanis delaying the project – and, that too, at a time when this country is in the grip of a growing gas shortage? Some argue that the price has become too high but the pricing mechanism had been agreed to and incidentally Iran is already supplying gas to Europe including Turkey and a Gulf state as well. There seems to be no logic beyond US pressure which already worked on India and led her to back out of the Iran pipeline project. But for India the pressure was feasible because the US was providing nuclear fuel and plants to help India overcome its energy deficit. In the case of Pakistan, it is simply pressure with no alternate commitments in terms of a lucrative nuclear deal. Although given how the US has yet to pay up what it owes Pakistan in terms of the Coalition Support Fund, US commitments for Pakistan have a declining credibility. So why would our leaders give up a concrete gas project for vague US promises in the conventional energy sector?
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Equally critical is the Pakistani leadership’s hesitation in taking up the Iranian offer of supplying initially 1000 mw of electricity on to the national grid. Iran already supplies electricity to neighbouring parts of Balochistan; but given the dire electricity shortages being faced, why are we not taking up the Iranian offer in this context also – especially since the Iranians are now prepared to supply 2000 mw to the national grid. US pressure again? There have been some questions raised on why US officials pay such indecently frequent visits to Pakistan but perhaps it is to ensure that we are “kept in line” since they are unable to comprehend the rising anti-US sentiment in this country at all levels.
Anyhow, it is not just on Iran that we are turning the positives into negatives. On Afghanistan also we are in danger of falling into another trap, this time to give India a de jure greater role in Afghan affairs – something it already has covertly, with US blessings. The reality is that different external players are all seeking different forums for getting their share of the pie in Afghanistan. Yet the reality is that it is the countries sharing a border with Afghanistan that are the main affectees of whatever happens there. That is why the trilateral meeting between the three foreign ministers of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran was a welcome step because it reflected a recognition by all three states that they cannot allow external players to use their soil for purposes of destabilising neighbouring powers. The commitment made by each to prevent this abuse of their territory was a welcome move but now we have a London Conference at the end of January, again on Afghanistan, sponsored by the UK (so desperately seeking its lost imperial glory in these parts!) and ostensibly the UN as part of the extension of the Bonn process. In international politics there is always a hot topic or two on which the global community focuses its time, perhaps money and conferencing culture and Afghanistan has been there in the forefront post- 9/11. Because of the international nature of this conference, 60 states have been invited to make their contribution to the rebuilding of Afghanistan. And amongst the countries invited is of course India.
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